The Steering Committee for National Sample Surveys (NSS) constituted by the National Statistical Commission (NSC) recommended that MoSPI should undertake a pilot study on the feasibility for generating the model-based district-level estimates based on the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES): 2022-23 data.

To explore the possibility of generation of district level estimates of Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE), a committee was formed under the Chairpersonship of Dr. Mausumi Bose, former Professor, Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Kolkata with members from the NSS and DES, Uttar Pradesh.

The Committee was mandated to estimate MPCE figures for the districts of Uttar Pradesh utilizing model-based techniques, more specifically, Small Area Estimation (SAE) methods. The district-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural and Urban Sector are given in Annexure.

Model-based techniques, adopting the Fay–Herriot (FH) and Spatial Fay–Herriot (SFH) models under the Small Area Estimation framework to borrow strength from covariate data and neighboring districts was used to generate reliable estimates of MPCE for the districts of Uttar Pradesh

Using the methodology as adopted by the Committee, estimates of MPCE values at sub-state level for the state of Uttar Pradesh, including Baghpat District, have been generated. These estimates of MPCE figures, in turn, would provide an idea of the economic conditions of the households and thereby, facilitating policy decisions for implementation of developmental programmes.